IMF upgrades global growth forecast but warns of 'split' outlook

Bangkok Post - Oct 13, 2026

BANGKOK - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday forecast that global growth in 2026 would slow less than previously expected due to advanced economies' "resilience" in the face of war-fuelled energy prices, but warned that low-income countries remained vulnerable to the supply shock.

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BANGKOK — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy for this year, while warning of growing risks from rising debt, including the financial frenzy around artificial intelligence. The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow at a 3.1 percent pace this year. That's up from its July forecast for 3.0 percent growth and well below the 3.5 percent expansion in 2025. Growth in 2027 should rebound to 3.4 percent, it said in its latest Economic Outlook. The report, released as world economic and financial leaders gathered in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank, predicts that growth in the United States will remain steady at 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2027. Collectively, advanced economies will grow 2.1 percent this year, up from 2.0 percent in 2025, and then slow to 1.9 percent growth next year, it said. The forecasts are based on a nearly 41 percent increase in oil prices this year, at an average of $96 a barrel. Global inflation is foreseen at 4.7 percent in 2026, falling to 4.1 percent next year. They also are based

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